Posted by Jack @ 8:26 pm on June 22nd 2010

World Cup Group C and D third round matches

Continuing in the same vein as yesterday’s Group A and B discussion post, here is one for Wednesday’s Group C and D matches:

Group C: For The Crossed Pond, this is the key group, the one with both USA and England, locked in desperate battle for knock off round qualification, but not really against each other. To date this has been an utterly disappointing group. No one is dominating, no one has qualified, no one has been eliminated, and thus anything can happen. Arguably, the US has the easiest path to qualification: Beat Algeria. That’s it. No confusing tie breaker criteria, simply win and they are through. Maybe they even win the group if England manages a draw against Slovenia, or England wins by no more goals than the Americans defeat Algeria. Where it gets interesting is if the US draws. In this case, they would need Slovenia to beat or draw England. For England, the situation is the same, though they face a tougher opponent, and one who may be inclined to play defensively. If England wins they qualify, and perhaps win the group depending on score. If they draw, they need the US to loose. For Slovenia, a win or a draw secures a spot in the knock off round. Even currently last place Algeria has a reasonable path to qualification: beat the US, hope for a Slovenian win or draw against England, and failing the latter, surpass the two goal differential they currently have against Slovenia to steal the number two spot. Predictions: US defeats Algeria and wins the group. England rallies from their disappointing performance in their first and (especially) second matches to beat Slovenia by one goal, clinching the number two position in the group.

Group D: What an odd group, though unsurprising given the nature of this World Cup: none of the Group D teams have clinched or been precluded from the knock off round. Country by country: For Ghana, the best (perhaps over) performing African team in the tourney, a win against Germany means they win the group. A tie clinches qualification to the next round. A loss means the ubiquitous tie breaker criteria comes into play: they would have to hope for an Australian victory, though an Ausie-Serb tie might due it too if Ghana only lost by one goal. For Germany: Win and they qualify, maybe leading the group. Tie and they will need Australia to defeat or draw Serbia. Lose and they are out. Serbia: if they win, they are in. If they draw, then they need Ghana to defeat, not merely draw, Germany. Australia, yes they still have a chance. They would need to defeat Serbia and hope for a Ghana victory over Germany. Predictions: Germany defeats Ghana clinching the group top slot. Australia draws Serbia, leaving Ghana in the number two position.

13 Comments »

  1. These posts are a good idea, Jack. Keep ’em coming.

    USA 2:1 Algeria (fingers crossed)
    England 2:0 Slovenia
    Germany 3:1 Ghana
    Serbia 1:0 Australia

    Comment by Rojas — 6/22/2010 @ 9:04 pm

  2. You know, I have to admit something. I posted in the A and B thread all day long thinking it was Rojas who posted it.

    These are a good idea. Plus, I don’t have to keep posting in each USA thread.

    Comment by Brad — 6/22/2010 @ 10:36 pm

  3. Incidentally, I won’t do scores, but I’m sort of liking Slovenia for a draw or even something like a 1-0 win. England’s been pretty thoroughly demoralized to this point. And as France has shown, a collective of major market stars, massively underperforming, from a country with crushing expectations, can just as easily spin themselves into total uselessness as they can get their shit together. Combined with Slovenia on a real high right now, playing great defensive ball, a bad first half for England and I could fully see a lot of thoroughly frustrated and skittish English players botching it.

    Of course, that’s probably me thinking like an Englishman…

    Comment by Brad — 6/22/2010 @ 10:52 pm

  4. I just copied the Group E & F status down so i can figure out the horse race scenarios in between meetings today. I should be able to put something out late afternoon or early evening when I get back to the hotel. Most posting I have done in a year.

    Comment by Jack — 6/23/2010 @ 10:56 am

  5. The winner of Group D will play England with the winner of Argentina-Mexico awaiting.

    The second-place team in Group D will play the US with the winner of Uruguay-South Korea awaiting.

    Rarely has there been more incentive to play for a second place finish. Fortunate that the group is this chaotic–essentially everybody has to play for the win no matter what.

    Comment by Rojas — 6/23/2010 @ 1:44 pm

  6. And we’re off with Group D. Serbia and Germany looking good early, though no score anywhere as yet.

    Comment by Brad — 6/23/2010 @ 2:43 pm

  7. I can’t even watch it because I’m still stuck on this tennis match.

    Comment by Rojas — 6/23/2010 @ 2:43 pm

  8. Ozil scores for Germany in the 61st. That means that it’s 1. Germany and 2. Ghana at the moment, but a goal for Germany or a goal for Serbia puts them in and Ghana out.

    Comment by Rojas — 6/23/2010 @ 3:50 pm

  9. But it’s the Aussies who score.

    They’d need at least one more to make up the goal differential…maybe two more?

    Comment by Rojas — 6/23/2010 @ 3:55 pm

  10. And a second for the Aussies…who still are behind by two on goal difference. That ass-beating by Germany in the opener really hurt.

    Comment by Rojas — 6/23/2010 @ 4:00 pm

  11. Serbia pulls one back, which just about does it.

    Comment by Rojas — 6/23/2010 @ 4:13 pm

  12. Rematch.

    Comment by Brad — 6/23/2010 @ 4:21 pm

  13. Germany wins the group and plays England–one of the greatest grudge matches in soccer, with Argentina (a legit archrival to both) probably awaiting.

    The US gets its revenge match against Ghana. One of these four teams will be a World Cup semifinalist: USA, Ghana, Uruguay, South Korea.

    Comment by Rojas — 6/23/2010 @ 4:21 pm

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