Posted by Brad @ 12:29 pm on November 30th 2009

Forget the Horserace Baselines

This is the number to look at if you’re trying to bring the potential 2010 picture into focus.

QUESTION: In the 2010 Congressional elections will you definitely vote, probably vote, not likely vote, or definitely will not vote?

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
Democratic voters: 56/40


  1. This sort of thing makes me wonder if Rasmussen’s Presidential JA ratings, which have been criticised for being lower and also for focussing on strong opinion, aren’t actually more useful than the other mainstream polls.

    Comment by Adam — 11/30/2009 @ 12:39 pm

  2. Turnout will certainly be critical, but this election is still eleven months away. It’s still possible that the Democrats will do something that will provide an actual reason to vote for them.

    Comment by Infidel753 — 11/30/2009 @ 2:12 pm

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