Posted by Brad @ 3:22 pm on July 22nd 2009


I mentioned somewhere else that it would be the apex of hilarious irony if Specter switches parties to avoid losing a race against Pat Toomey, only to lose a primary to some other guy (in this case, Joe Sestak).

I have now changed my mind.

It would be the TRUE apex of hilarity if Specter wins his Democratic primary, and then loses to Pat Toomey anyway. And the Democrats will have managed to completely screw themselves in the process, losing a seat that would have been an easy win against Specter, or against Toomey with any Democrat besides Specter.


General election

Specter (D) 45 (46)
Toomey (R) 44 (37)

Sestak (D) 35 (37)
Toomey (R) 39 (35)


  1. But it doesn’t look like Sestak is beating Toomey either. That could obviously be attributed to name recognition at this early stage, but it’s worth noting that other Democrats could also face a challenge with Toomey.

    In other trial matchups Specter would defeat Luksik 47 – 40 percent, while Toomey would edge Sestak 39 – 35 percent.

    Comment by Cameron — 7/23/2009 @ 8:55 am

  2. My own sense of things is that it’s not any upsurge of popularity for Toomey so much as backlash against Specter and PA Dems.

    I would expect that this bump for Toomey is temporary, though in a Specter matchup it might not be (which is to say, I would expect Toomey’s advantage to dissipate if any other Dem gets the nomination, but against Specter may hang on).

    Comment by Brad — 7/23/2009 @ 7:04 pm

  3. If Spector is only 7 points up on Luksik, then I have some serious skepticism about this poll. IF it is accurate, than this suggests a dramatic decrease in Spector’s popularity, but it looks a lot like an outlier.

    Comment by Jack — 7/24/2009 @ 11:18 pm

  4. And eventually, I will stop mispelling Specter’s name.

    Comment by Jack — 7/24/2009 @ 11:19 pm

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