The Crossed Pond

Nate Silver takes a crude but effective look at NY-20, and concludes that, barring everything, Scott Murphy will probably wind up with a lead of about 500 once all the absentee ballots are counted. As many “ifs” in that statement as you might guess, but Silver’s math there is pretty basic and persuasive.

In Minnesota, meanwhile, Franken has basically won by most any measure, and now it’s just a matter of the very last appeals in Coleman’s arsenal. I’ve read a lot about this story, and I literally have not run across anybody on the internet at this point that actually thinks Norm Coleman is going to win this one. The only open question is how worth his while it is to run out the clock as much as possible on behalf of the Republican party, fearing that 60th vote, and whether Tim Pawlenty will go along with him on it (hint: he will). Technically, the recent ruling declared that the state ought to certify Franken now, but likely that question won’t be pressed until Coleman’s appeal to the state supreme court plays out (which they’re saying might be another six weeks). At that point though, I’m guessing the Democrats play hardball and start suing the state to issue the certification, and probably they’d win/get Pawlenty to scurry for cover.

In both races, though, an ultimate Democratic victory seems likely.