The Crossed Pond

A bit of surprising, but welcome, news.

I wrote before that I see this administration and this point in history as a potential window of opportunity for normalizing relations with Cuba. With the G-20 going on now and the Summit of the Americas coming right on its heels, for really the first time in his presidency Obama is finally able to start stretching his foreign policy legs (which we haven’t seen yet, and which there has been some question about). There’s already been some interesting noises about a potential START deal with Russia (as well as a potential quid pro quo on Iran, but of course most of this is just a feeling out period between Obama and other world leaders. So far so good, but nothing concrete.

But back in our own hemisphere, Dick Lugar, the Republican foreign policy institution, has written a letter to Obama urging him to begin the process of setting a new foot forward in our relations with Cuba. Specifically:

With momentum building in Congress for a change in U.S. policy toward Cuba, Sen. Richard G. Lugar called on President Obama to appoint a special envoy to initiate direct talks with the island’s communist government and to end U.S. opposition to Cuba’s membership in the Organization of American States.

The nearly 50-year-old economic embargo against Cuba, Lugar (R-Ind.) said in a March 30 letter to Obama, puts the United States at odds with the views of the rest of Latin America, the European Union and the United Nations, and “undermines our broader security and political interests in the Western Hemisphere.”

The April 17-19 Summit of the Americas in Trinidad and Tobago would present a “unique opportunity for you to build a more hospitable climate to advance U.S. interests in the region through a change in our posture regarding Cuba policy,” Lugar wrote.

Lugar, the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is in the forefront of a broad movement advocating a new policy that includes the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other business groups, a number of state governments and human rights groups. A bipartisan majority of Congress has repeatedly voted to ease restrictions on travel and other contact with Cuba, although the measures died after threatened presidential vetoes during the Bush administration….

Lugar is a co-sponsor of a bipartisan bill introduced in the Senate this week that would end all restrictions on travel to Cuba except in cases of war or direct threats to health or safety. Cuban Americans with relatives living on the island are currently allowed to visit once a year. A similar bill in the House has more than 120 bipartisan co-sponsors.

Lifting all restrictions — and the trade embargo — requires legislation, but Obama can end the travel limits for Cuban Americans by executive order. Neither the legislation nor Lugar, in his letter to Obama, proposes lifting all sanctions outright or immediately resuming diplomatic relations. Lugar said the appointment of an envoy and initiation of direct talks on subjects such as migration and drug interdiction would “serve vital U.S. security interests . . . and could ultimately create the conditions for meaningful discussion of more contentious subjects.”

Fidel Casto personal superstructure is being quietly swept away by Raul—which is by no means itself a good thing—but it does present something we’ve not had in Cuba for a long time—a (very relatively) clean slate. And, Cuba represents something of an interesting carrot in the aforementioned talks with Russia. I’m not sure, to be honest, that Russia really wants us normalizing or easing our defensive posture against Cuba, but if it’s offered up as something they can potentially play mediator on or something they can sell back to their public, it might be worth their while. Something to throw in the mix anyway (particularly if Obama means to do it anyway). And, of course, there’s Venezuala to think about—at this point I think they have more influence than Russia does, and Chavez very apparently means to make Cuba a client state and he’ll probably, to some degree, succeed.

But regardless, with Dick Lugar very publicly coming out in favor of this and more or less forming a contingent of senior Republican foreign policy stalwarts, one can assume that, were Obama to tack that way, the threat of a lot of potential Republican oppositional cries loses quite a bit of steam.