The Crossed Pond

At this point, about the only way Michael Steele would actually be forcibly removed from office is perhaps if the GOP loses NY-20, the seat which holds a special election on March 31st (after being vacated by Hillary Clinton’s replacement Kirsten Gillibrand in the Senate). Republican activists have bumped this one up on the radar because they view it, maybe rightly, as A. a single race to focus on, and B. one that tests the waters as to whether or not Obama and the Democrats are on the up, or on the down. NY-20 was previously held by a Democrat, but it’s a Republican district (+15% R), and all through the race Republican candidate Jim Tedisco, state assembly minority leader, has been well ahead of his Democratic opponent Scott Murphy, who by the way has never held elected office. This is a race that the Republicans ought to be able to take, and they know it, and if the tide is turning against Democrats, we’d likely see it here (in that Tedisco will likely crush Murphy).

I wrote in my last update that Murphy had managed to close the gap to 12 points, with Tedisco still under 50%. Not bad, but not really striking range. Now, he’s got it down to 7 points, with Tedisco under 45% (44-37), which is about a 25 point swing in five weeks in this race. That’s no, no good.

And this is coming at the point in the race where both the Democrats and the Republicans are stepping up efforts.

Top Republicans, including House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, have made picking up the GOP-leaning 20th District their top political mission, steering money and donors to the race. Steele has been to the district twice, while Boehner is expected there soon. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and former New York Gov. George Pataki have also been involved.

Gillibrand, who is enormously popular in the district, has cut ads and recorded “robocalls” for Murphy, while Paterson and Sen. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) are helping him on the fundraising side. Murphy’s upcoming disclosure report will show that he has ranked in well over $1 million, while Tedisco is approaching that threshold as well, according to sources from both parties.

Why does this matter to Steele?

Because, while he can’t claim responsibility for, say, RNC total fundraising numbers, this has been the only race on the immediate docket for his six weeks as chairman, and given that it’s coming now, a lot of Republican insiders that seem to be looking for an excuse are viewing it as a test of leadership. From politicalwire today:

Republican insiders tell Political Wire that a no confidence vote on RNC Chairman Michael Steele is likely to be called after the NY-20 special election on March 31 — regardless of whether Republicans win the seat or not.

Katon Dawson, who came in second in the January RNC vote, is said to be quietly organizing a vote and is getting the support of several state party chairmen who want to dump Steele.

I'm taking that with a grain of salt, but it does strike me at the very least as a trial balloon being floated by Steele's internal enemies---and nobody's been really quick to shoot it down. My hunch is that if the GOP takes NY-20, Steele's off the hook. He still might be able to weather it even if the GOP loses, but it'll be, at a minimum, more choppy seas ahead. And, if you're looking for tea leaves as to how the political battling between the two parties has been playing out amongst voters, this might be an interesting test case.