So I don’t know if anybody has been following the barely-below-the-surface dustups over the Kentucky Senate seat currently held by Jim Bunning, but it’s been one of those insider D.C. stories that’s really amusing.
Background: Jim Bunning is not a very good Senator. That’s not just me talking—even Time magazine singled him out in 2006 as one of America’s Worst. And it’s not just that he does very little with the office, it’s that he has a reputation for being very difficult to work with, and for constantly sticking his foot in his mouth. You’ll remember last week when he openly speculated about Justice Ginbsburg’s prognosis, which is pretty par for the course for him. From that Time writeup, describing his last election:
Having served Kentucky for 12 years in the House before moving to the Senate in 1998, Bunning exhibited bizarre behavior during his 2004 re-election campaign. He said his Democratic opponent, a child of Italian immigrants, looked like one of Saddam Hussein’s sons. He refused to go to Kentucky for the campaign’s only debate and took part instead from Washington. It was later revealed that he had read some of his answers in the debate from a teleprompter. He was returned to office by just two points in a state that President Bush carried by 20.
It was actually even weirder than that. That was also the election in which he had to repeatedly and publicly deny that he was senile—a denial that became less and less convincing the more he talked. When you have to go on the record as saying you are not, in fact, suffering from some form of dementia—not once, but often—you know you’re in some trouble. If you want a full accounting of that race, and the questions about Bunning’s mental fitness, Salon has a piece simply titled “Weirdness in Kentucky” that’s worth reading.
In any case, Bunning barely squeaked by in 2004, winning in Kentucky by, as the Time article mentions, a mere two points.
Since 2004, things have only gotten worse for Republican in Kentucky. The Democratic party in the state, like in North Carolina and a few other southern bellweathers, has been aggressively getting its act together in the last 6 years. They’ve put up top-tier challengers to every Republican incumbent of note in the state, and have gotten a pretty good grassroots volunteer and fundraising machine up, running, and now pretty battle-tested. And of course, Kentucky has been mired in Illinois-levels of corruption. Governor Ernie Fletcher was one of the victims. Knee-deep in all sorts of scandal, he was asked by every Republican in America to step down in the hopes that the GOP could manage to save the seat for the party, but he refused them all, determining to stay the course. The result was he was booted and a Democrat took the governor’s mansion. To make matters worse, Bunning’s opponent from 2004, who he beat only by the skin of his teeth, is now Lieutenant Governor Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, and he promises that he’s going to challenge Bunning again. Early polling being circulated around the hill shows him winning that rematch. Bunning, for his part, promises to have 10 million dollars for that race. But the clock is running, and so far he’s up $150,000 to date (i.e. since 2004).
So the importance of all that context is that, even in the best of times, Bunning would face a problem retaining his seat in 2010, and for the Kentucky GOP, these are far from the best of times. Given all that, it’s hard to blame them for gently trying to get Bunning to retire gracefully and allow them to draw some new blood up-ticket.
At least, it’s hard to blame them unless you’re Jim Bunning.
See, over the last six months, when asked if Bunning would run, Mitch McConnell—the other Senator from Kentucky, and also the GOP minority leader—has given a lot of mealy-mouthed answers, saying he isn’t sure. It’s the same line that John Cornyn, Chairman of the NRSC (and thus in charge of recruiting and party fundraising for Senate race) is giving. In private, most everybody agrees that McConnell and Cornyn are really, really hoping they don’t have to deal with Bunning trying to run again in 2010. Both have “suggested”, repeatedly, that Bunning might decide to retire, and both have been meeting with Kentucky Republicans widely speculated to be considering runs for the seat (including the Senate President in Kentucky). This has apparantly come as news to Bunning.
McConnell and Bunning’s relationship reached a low last week when an aide to McConnell suggested that a potential primary challenger meet with National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) officials.
NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (Texas) said committee officials met with Kentucky Senate President David Williams, who is exploring a challenge to Bunning, as a “courtesy.”
Despite this, Cornyn said this week that he would support Bunning’s reelection bid.
That failed to appease the cantankerous Kentuckian.
“I don’t believe anything John Cornyn says. I’ve had miscommunications with John Cornyn from, I guess, the first week of this current session of the Senate,” Bunning fumed in a conference call with reporters.
“He either doesn’t understand English or he doesn’t understand direct: ‘I’m going to run,’ which I said to him in the cloakroom of our chamber,” Bunning said, according to the Louisville Courier-Journal.
But wait, it gets better. So upset is Bunning, that he’s now threatening to, somehow, sue the Republican party.
In a sign of how desperate Bunning’s political situation has become, he threatened during the same call to sue the NRSC if it supported a primary challenger. He argued that the committee was created to support incumbents and that backing a challenger would violate its bylaws.
Nobody is really sure how that lawsuit would work, but whatever.
All of this has been pretty hilarious, and if Bunning does decide to run, it puts McConnell and Cornyn in a helluva spot. Even if they DO get behind Bunning 100%, Bunning is the sort of candidate that is going to be a nightmare in terms of handling, and Kentucky will be one of the Top Three Senate contests of the cycle. But if they make any further attempts to quietly push Bunning out, or to get behind a primary challenger who would give them a better shot at retaining the seat, Bunning has let it be known that he has no qualms using his soapbox to blast anybody and everybody who he perceives as slighting him.
BUT WAIT, there’s more. Now, via some chatter in email, I’ve been told that even if the best case scenario happens and Bunning does decide to retire, that will very likely prompt the son of a recent Presidential candidate to enter the race. Dr. Rand Paul.
After several phone and e-mail conversations with Dr. Rand Paul in the last couple days he has made it clear that he is indeed seriously considering running for Senate in 2010!
Dr. Rand Paul is son of current Congressman and 2008 Republican Presidential candidate Dr. Ron Paul of Texas.
Dr. Rand Paul lives in Kentucky and is currently weighing his options. Rand has mentioned the two major factors in his forming of an exploratory committee:
“much hinges on whether [Senator] Bunning runs [again]. It is very unlikely that I would oppose him.”
and
“AP in KY is writing a story tonight (2/26) that should be online tomorrow (2/27). I want to see what kind of legs the story gets and begin to filter my interest out online”…[I want to] “gauge the interest out on the internet among our folks”
Dr. Rand Paul is an ophthalmologist in Bowling Green, KY.
His website is: http://randpaulmd.com.
The reason, incidentally, that Rand wouldn’t run against Bunning is one of the few things Bunning is known for engaging in, in terms of policy, is criticism of the Federal Reserve (what that might say about critics of the Federal Reserve is another matter entirely). He’s been Greenspan/Bernake’s inquisitor in the Senate in much the same fashion that Ron Paul is in the House, and he was one of the few and most vocal Republican critics of the Bush/Paulson Wall Street bailout (which McConnell was in favor of). That means both that the Paul people are generally favorable to him, and also that they’d have no great desire to primary him because a big chunk of their message wouldn’t really work. That also means that potential primary contenders for the seat face a problem. If Bunning runs, they can’t run to his right on economics. If Bunning doesn’t run, then it seems likely that Rand Paul does, who you definitely can’t get to the right of on economics.
And, of course, as Ron’s son, Rand Paul is more than just a Paulite running for something, he’s a Paul, making his primary campaign the likely focal point of all of Dr. Paul and the Campaign for Liberty’s agenda in 2010. To put that another way, Paulites have been relatively scattered in terms of supporting Paulite-ish candidates, but Rand Paul running is a different animal entirely. There will be no debate in the Paul community about whether to support him or not, or what other goals to mess around with. Rand running is the equivalent of a conch shell blow reassembling the hordes.
This Senate race was going to be a top tier one no matter what. But with all the developments over the last few months, it’s now shaping up to be an election-geek’s wet dream.