And the more I think about it, the more I want to reiterate this:

…just as importantly, [it] gives the McCain campaign a bit of an aura of “something different”. I think a traditional choice like Pawlenty, or Romney, would actually hurt the McCain brand because it’ll be one big yawn, and if there’s one thing the McCain campaign needs to move away from, it’s being a yawn-inducing “placeholder Republican opponent” sort of affair, which to my mind is the #1 danger he faces. He needs to try somehow to not just make this election a referendum on Obama specifically and the GOP generally, because if it’s that, he loses, no question. And make no mistake, that’s where this campaign is headed barring some outside-the-box plays from Team McCain.

Thinking on it, the other thing that’s striking is how few opportunities for big plays McCain is going to have. He’s not a consistent enough speaker to be relied on to hit homeruns in every debate or big appearance (chances are, he’ll have just as many ugly swing-and-misses on those grounds as hits). And the excitement around Obama, though that will turn on him (Obama) now and then, is at some point almost a self-sustaining narrative. McCain’s just got his bus and a few dozen reporter chums going for him on that front.

It (making standard, safe plays) also exactly plays into his big narrative weaknesses; that McCain is old and just more of the same thing. I don’t think Pawlenty will make people consciously think that, but ephemerally, it sets that tone, and more then anything, is a missed opportunity to not feed into that (or to break out of it).

My growing sense is McCain is going to have precious few chances to break out of the box. And other then sitting around and waiting for Obama to implode (which didn’t work for Clinton, who started 30 friggin’ points ahead of Obama no less), that’s exactly what he has to do if he wants some ability to shape his own campaign’s destiny. There are only two big plays I can think of: a bold VP choice, and perhaps a one-term pledge. Doing both of those things, for instance, would radically re-shape the general election race. And I sure can’t think of much else from McCain’s end that will.

(For the sake of clarity, it should be noted that I’m already presupposing that McCain is starting with the losing hand, but I’m pretty comfortable with that)

Anyway, the real reason I stopped by was to thank you for your endorsement and let you know that you are now on our blogroll. Also, if you want to be fully plugged in to the Draft Palin Movement,I would recommend getting on the mailing list by emailing me at palinforvp@gmail.com.

Thanks,
Adam Brickley
Founder, “Draft Sarah Palin for Vice President”
palinforvp.blogspot.com

But also, I’m a pretty strong believer at this point that the whole VP-for-the-sake-of-his-state thing is a great big waste of time. It hasn’t really worked as it’s supposed to since Kennedy/Johnson. Worse then a waste of time, it might even be counterproductive, because it can run counter to more ephemeral but perhaps more important concerns. I think, for instance, that Bush’s picking of Cheney—one of the more politically savvy choices in my lifetime—probably bought him a lot more states then had he picked some random person from some state that seemed really important at the time.

If McCain is in a position where he needs the extra 3-5% that Pawlenty might buy him to win Minnesota, he’s probably lost the election already. The truth is McCain can’t really afford to run a “stand still and hold your ground” campaign. Hoping to eek by on the margins of 8 states isn’t going to do it, I don’t think (Minnesota, for instance, if that’s one of those 8, already starts at a baseline -13 for McCain). I think it still hasn’t sunk in yet with Republican strategists that the regular playbook probably isn’t going to cut it, because of A. the massive GOP brand problems, and B. Obama being the opponent.

Palin, I would think, would automatically give McCain a few percentage points among women nationally, independents, and that mythical 20% small-l libertarian vote. It also, as I said, cuts into Obama advantages in all those areas, and just as importantly, gives the McCain campaign a bit of an aura of “something different”. I think a traditional choice like Pawlenty, or Romney, would actually hurt the McCain brand because it’ll be one big yawn, and if there’s one thing the McCain campaign needs to move away from, it’s being a yawn-inducing “placeholder Republican opponent” sort of affair, which to my mind is the #1 danger he faces. He needs to try somehow to not just make this election a referendum on Obama specifically and the GOP generally, because if it’s that, he loses, no question. And make no mistake, that’s where this campaign is headed barring some outside-the-box plays from Team McCain.