One Bill Obama Probably Shouldn’t Pay
Even as Obama has sought to politically wed himself to Hillary Clinton and her supporters one senses that he has forgotten that such a marriage comes with a rather hefty Bill; Bill Clinton that is. Even if, as a Telegraph story suggests, Mr. Obama were to figuratively buss Bill’s butt…
But his lingering fury has shocked his friends. The Democrat told the Telegraph: “He’s been angry for a while. But everyone thought he would get over it. He hasn’t. I’ve spoken to a couple of people who he’s been in contact with and he is mad as hell.
“He’s saying he’s not going to reach out, that Obama has to come to him. One person told me that Bill said Obama would have to quote kiss my ass close quote, if he wants his support.
…does he really want the sort of “help” Bill Clinton has to offer? After all, it is not over the top to suggest that the former president’s arrogance and purple-faced pandemonium rather largely contributed to Ms. Clinton’s loss to Barack Obama.
Senator Obama is a man both Clintons have repeatedly stated and suggested was ill-prepared for the presidency, an opinion Bill Clinton apparently still tenaciously clings to.
Another Democrat said that despite polls showing Mr Obama with a healthy lead over Republican John McCain, Mr Clinton doesn’t think he can win.
With friends like that, who needs enemies?
Unity with Ms. Clinton will have its own problems going forward given that during a primary campaign about real change Obama never hesitated to point out that Senator Clinton is like the poster child for business as usual in Washington. When the group hug is over and the gloves come off going forward, McCain is going to have no shortage of conundrums to exploit within the Clinton’s second marriage of convenience to the Obama machine. Meanwhile, if Bill Clinton does begrudgingly take an active roll campaigning for Mr. Obama, what is that going to look like? Will he be able to avoid the tirades that peppered his wife’s campaign like a Dick Cheney hunting partner or will he be the loose cannon he has always been?
By seeking Hillary Clinton’s voters by a somewhat unholy union rather than direct appeal I think Senator Obama is taking a risk that may cost him dearly in the end. I question whether the weight of Hillary’s embrace might not overcome the support Obama might hope to gain from it. It is conceivable that in an ironic twist of fate Barack Obama could still lose this election, not to John McCain, but to the Clintons.
Actually, I think if there is one line of attack that Obama is more or less absolutely immune to, it’s trying to get at him via attacking the Clintons. Given that Obama has had to face the Clinton machine more then any Republican ever has, and came out on top. Trying to tie him to the Clinton psychodrama, given that he’s the dragonslayer in that dynamic, is going to be impossible. This is true even if Bill and Hillary campaign mightily for him. It just isn’t going to reverberate with anybody, at all, to say Barack Obama is any kind of vanguard for the Clintons. The only way that’ll stick is if he puts Hillary on the ticket. Short of that, and I mean anything short of that, just won’t fly. I think Obama’s effectively earned an asbestos suit, and the GOP and Clinton-haters are going to have to throw out the old playbook if they want to be taken seriously by anybody. Reading the anti-Clinton script at Obama won’t work.
That said, I think Obama should just ignore Bill. It’s obvious that Bill has taken all of this very very personally, correctly sensing that in many ways in the last two months the Democratic party and the country at large have at long last moved past the Clintons. I think Obama should continue to deal with the Clintons the way he has been, and if the Clinton people want Bill to have a bigger role they can deal with him themselves. But he needs not make any special overtures himself, at least not above and beyond what would normally be expected (a private meeting, a promise of a big speech, and that’s about it). Bill’s political weight is being vastly overstated at this point (by his enemies as much as anybody). Obama doesn’t need him at all; so long as he’s not overtly publicly hostile, Barack’ll do just fine on his own.
Comment by Brad — 6/28/2008 @ 5:02 pm
I think that you are mostly correct, Brad, in that the connection with Hillary can be dealt with should attacks arise from it. However, the point of my post is that Bill Clinton is Bill Clinton, and he can be a liability to Obama just as I think he was to his wife’s campaign. He would do well to let them “hug” him but avoid hugging to tightly back. We’ll see how it all goes.
Comment by James — 6/28/2008 @ 5:54 pm
Aside from tabloid fodder and go-to A-list client schmoozer, I think it’s safe to say that the days when Bill Clinton was a political factor, one way or the other, are over.
We have Obama to thank for that.
Comment by Brad — 6/28/2008 @ 7:04 pm
I imagine Bill Clinton’s future role to be like a more petulant George H.W. Bush with occasional bouts of drama. Again though, I think Obama’s earned himself a teflon coating as far as getting stuck with any of the Clinton’s shit is concerned.
Comment by Brad — 6/28/2008 @ 7:31 pm
As usual, your gift of underestimation is firing on all cylinders.
Comment by James — 6/28/2008 @ 10:34 pm
I wouldn’t rule Bill Clinton out so sweepingly. If Obama rides high all the way through to November then he doesn’t need anyone’s help, but if for some reason the wheels start to wobble, that’s when he’ll need friends.
Additionally, I think that most Obama-supporting Democrats will forgive Bill Clinton. Clinton, if all goes well for Obama, shouldn’t be a political factor in this election, but that’s not the same as the days of him being a political factor being over forever. Some of that will depend on how well an Obama presidency (the likely outcome from November) goes, of course; I think that the last successful Democrat president has a certain cachet in Democrat circles and Obama will lay a claim to that himself, but if his tenure isn’t a considerable success then Clinton’s stock will rise again without him doing anything. Even if Obama is a success, Clinton’s stock will rise again, I suspect, with the proviso that he can always ruin that with his own actions (although to be fair, plenty of Democrats still like Carter although I think that he’s bled influence to the point where even for those people, he’s more like a favourite grand-uncle than a source of listened-to advice).
Comment by Adam — 6/29/2008 @ 9:14 am