The Math
Indiana and North Carolina vote tomorrow, allotting about half of the remaining pledged delegates. Chuck Todd lays it out:
…nearly half of all remaining delegates will get handed out tomorrow. And the math will be a lot more crystal clear after tomorrow, both in delegates and the popular vote. Following Guam, there are now 404 pledged delegates up grabs, and 187 of them will be decided on Tuesday. Plus, per our count, there are 268 undeclared superdelegates. Here are the basics of what each candidate needs: Assuming he wins half of the delegates tomorrow (93), Obama needs just 38% of ALL remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,025.
I don’t think that it’s news that Obama is going to come in ahead on pledged delegates (even if they decided to seat Florida and Michigan, which they won’t).
Comment by Adam — 5/5/2008 @ 6:54 pm
I thought what was worth reposting is he needs 38% of the remaining uncommitted delegates—both pledged and super—to cinch it.
If he comes out of tomorrow and the final states a little better than even, then he needs only convince about 30% of the remaining undeclared supers to get on board.
Of course, any of the superdelegates can theoretically change their minds at any time, but given that even through April he’s been putting them away at about a 9 to 10 ratio, and that he hasn’t lost any ever that I’m aware of, but from the Clinton perspective, trying to make sure that 30% of super delegates DON’T shave off to Obama seems, well, impossible.
And my guess is, the moment he reaches that magic number, it solidifies overnight, and any further argument from Clinton, no matter HOW founded, falls on deaf and downright hostile ears.
Comment by Brad — 5/5/2008 @ 9:52 pm
And these sorts of things aren’t helping.
Comment by Brad — 5/5/2008 @ 10:31 pm