The Crossed Pond

She will suspend her presidential campaign no later than March 7th. I view it now to be almost as likely that she drops out BEFORE March 4th than that she takes it all the way to the convention. Regardless, she doesn’t make it past Texas/Ohio.

We at The Crossed Pond sort of enjoy going out on limbs in terms of predictions. That’s one reason we’ve had cattle calls consistently, and most all of us bloggers (along with our readers) participate in them. If you’re going to prognosticate, in my opinion, may as well not pussyfoot around it.

And remember, I was the first one to lay out the correct scenario, the last cattle call before voting began, for why John McCain was going to win (though I got a few incidentals wrong—I reversed the roles of Romney/Huckabee most notably—but for a December 20th prediction that did turn out to be freakishly accurate; c’mon Rojas, even you have to admit that).

Anyway, on to my point.

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Tonight during the Democratic debate, I had my first moment, ever, of really, really liking—even being moved by—Hillary Clinton.

It came during her closing statement.

For those that missed it, the rest of the debate was standard fare. Barack Obama was in command, looking like he could do this in his sleep, and transcending the venue, looking like he was running for President. Hillary Clinton was sharp, on message, on point, and looking like she was working very hard to not backslide, to stay professional, and to just get through the night. Barack Obama looked like he was ready to move on to the next step. Hillary Clinton looked resigned and strangely serene. Both did just fine, but there was an unmistakable air that Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee. Even the body language was unmistakable. There was somebody running for President sitting next to somebody giving a great long sigh in the final breaths of a campaign trying to unseat the guy running for President.

And in the closing statement, Hillary had one of her very rare but weirdly compelling “human” moments. The Stepford Candidate veneer dropped.

CLINTON: You know, the hits I’ve taken in life are nothing compared to what goes on every single day in the lives of people across our country.

And I resolved at a very young age that I’d been blessed and that I was called by my faith and by my upbringing to do what I could to give others the same opportunities and blessings that I took for granted.

That’s what gets me up in the morning. That’s what motivates me in this campaign.

(APPLAUSE)

And here she reached across the table, almost for the first time in the debate making direct eye contact with Barack, and her voice took on an entirely different tenor…

And, you know, no matter what happens in this contest — and I am honored, I am honored to be here with Barack Obama. I am absolutely honored.

(APPLAUSE)

CLINTON: Whatever happens, we’re going to be fine. You know, we have strong support from our families and our friends. I just hope that we’ll be able to say the same thing about the American people, and that’s what this election should be about.

(APPLAUSE)

And that was the end of the debate.

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If there is anything that Hillary Clinton is not, it is stupid. The question is whether her ambition—which is no doubt considerable—is so much as to be an impulse that—guaranteed—short circuits her sharpness.

99% of the time I’d say yes. In the final days of this primary, I’m now leaning towards no.

Consider.

There is, at this point, almost no viable scenario for Hillary Clinton getting the Democratic nomination (and believe me, we’ve tried looking, right down to wondering if Chelsea can somehow be installed as a tribal warlord of Puerto Rico). It is still within the realm of distant possibility, of course, in that she could manage 70-30 victories in the remaining states, bleed the party for every half delegate her last name and years of political visibility can get her, grind the process down into a “I’m losing but only just!” stalemate until the convention, and then knock every arrow in her quivver and hope she can so mire the party in muck, technicalities, and back-room influence that she somehow manages to claw her way to the nomination with half the party hating her guts and the rest of American dumbfounded at her feral ambition. Given that it’s Hillary Clinton, we’ve been assuming that, if there’s a 1% chance of that, that’s the road she’s going to take.

But as I said, Hillary Clinton is not stupid.

By far the most likely scenario for her?

She loses Texas. Ohio is so close as to be a non-factor in terms of momentum. Even Rhode Island might be a tie. The numbers might give-or-take five points, a tie vs. a close Obama win vs. a close Hillary win, whatever, but the point is the story out of March 4th is “How can Hillary possibly win the nomination?” Unless she wins all the March 4th states by at least 10+, this is the case. And at this point, is there anybody willing to put some money up against me that that doesn’t happen?

At that point, she has to spend the next month facing that question, in a more fevered pitch than she has yet (and it’s already pretty fevered). From the first week of March to the final week of April (Pennsylvania), she has to endure what she’s endured since February 5th, but perhaps even worse. She faces the public humiliation of a different superdelegate abandoning her on a daily basis, eventually them doing so en masse. And probably before it even gets to the convention, it gets to the point where she has to face the distinct impression held by everyone in America that the Democratic party has rebuked her, has moved on, but she, alone, is still wrapping her arms around its heels, kicking her feet madly. She has to face all this, and she still almost certainly loses. Or, if by some miracle she wins, she comes out of it with so much disgust dagger-glared at her by not just Republicans who have a meme against her practically bronzed, but America at large, and her party base, that she never gets past it. Probably, she becomes the Democrat, the only one alive, that somehow managed to lose to John McCain in his race to be George W. Bush’s successor.

This is by no means doom-saying on my part. This is the reasonable scenario for an outside chance at a Hillary victory.

And by now, Hillary knows it.

You could see it in her face tonight. She knows it.

Mark Penn has his job to do. Harold Ickes his. Even Bill has his, though he, like her, isn’t dumb enough to not read the writing on the wall.

So if you’re Hillary Clinton, what do you do?

The choice, it seems to me, is simple.

You either keep pushing forward on a lose-lose scenario that goes nowhere but ugly, and that gets worse and worse the further you push.

Or you take your Sister Souljah moment, against your own campaign.

Hillary Clinton, by dropping out, gains in one fell swoop the admiration and adoration of the entire Democratic party. In one fell swoop, she lays waste to the dominant meme that has dogged her and her dynasty since time immemorial (that all she cares about is her own ambition and that she will throw everything under the bus in service of that). In a single act, she gains what she’s always wanted: the veneer of a true leader. For a politician that has been defined by her calculation, by her ruthlessness, by her seeming-unhumanness and lack of political courage, and, above all else, for her complete lack of political altruism where it conflicts with her own desires.

I gave you the scenario for Clinton pushing on.

For Clinton signing off, it looks entirely different.

She becomes a normal citation within Democratic ranks for doing what’s right. For putting the country and the party ahead of ambition. Even her worst detractors can’t help but be impressed (and moved).

She hollows out the principle charges against her within the Republican ranks. That she’s a power-crazed succubus. That charge just seems sort of lifeless after her most significant action in public life is the exact opposite.

She gains the instant respect and genuine affection of President Barack Obama. She will have his ear anytime she wants it every day that he is in office.

She goes back to the Senate as the leading voice in the Democratic party in the legislature. She becomes a party leader in a way only comparable to her husband today (maybe Al Gore and Jimmy Carter too).

If something nutty occurs and Obama loses the general election, she’s not just the go-to candidate for 2012, the party practically begs her to let them hoist them on their shoulders and carry her to her coronation.

Perhaps I’m overstating that a bit, but the point is she can either play a long, long, longshot chance to win and engender visceral disgust and hatred from America for the rest of her days.

Or she bows out and becomes a Democratic folk hero with more influence than she could ever have in the Senate otherwise.

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Tonight, I got the distinct impression that Hillary Clinton knows all of this.

Her closing argument was almost valedictory.

Yesterday, I was bean-counting scenarios for how much damage Hillary could do to her party based on my unquestioned assumption that she was constitutionally incapable of giving up.

Today, I’m tacking in a very different direction.

My guess is she stays in until March 4th, where she loses, and then she gracefully bows out.