Reality Check
A talking point that is getting pushed a lot lately, without anybody really backing it up, is that “with the surge working, politically Americans are getting optimistic about Iraq”. McCain pushes that line a lot, saying he thinks America is onboard with staying in Iraq for however long it takes (100 years, 10,000 years).
A quick reality check on that:
61% of Americans would like to see U.S. troops brought home from Iraq within a year. That’s up a point from a week ago and two points from two weeks ago. Over the last eighteen weeks, the number wanting troops home within a year has ranged from a low of 57% to a high of 64%.
Twenty-four percent (24%) now want the troops brought home immediately.
Looking at the other end of the spectrum, 34% want troops to remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. That is down two points from a week ago. The number of Americans who want the troops to remain and finish the mission had ranged from 32% to 39% since tracking began.
The number of Americans who want to stay until the job done peaks out at 39%. The number who want all troops gone in a year peaks at more than 2/3s of the country. (N.B.: 65% now think it has not been worth the cost, Democrats remain more trusted on the issue, generically, than Republicans, and Iraq remains the second most important issue going into the elections, a hair behind the economy, with 87% of Americans viewing it as “extremely important” to their vote).
With Bush at 19% and “This Country is on the Wrong Track” numbers now broaching 70%, just something that’s worth keeping in mind.
Yup, Republicans are heading over the cliff with their petal to the floor…
Comment by daveg — 2/21/2008 @ 5:01 am
It’s not just Republicans, it’s the media and even some Democrats (heck, I even heard Adam give the line a few times here). The idea that maybe pushing for withdraw is a political loser now, or that “stay until we get the job done” is a position most Americans are sympathetic to, or “increasingly” sympathetic to.
The fact of the matter is, as far as hot button political issues go, you will RARELY find one on which the views of the public are this clear and this highly favorable to one side or the other. The views of the public on this are highly one-sided, highly consistent, and highly unchanged.
I also think this is what makes John McCain unelectable. Because this contrast is going to be front and center, and one of the more marquee contrasts, of this election cycle. If that weren’t bad enough, it’s a contrast that has implications for the entire dynamic, painting John McCain as a “stay the course” candidate (a painting that will not stay neatly in the lines to just applying to Iraq, if that becomes the archetype for the candidate generally). Granted, of course, a skilled politician can sometimes navigate even waters this unfriendly, but against Barack Obama, who is practically designed as a “change” candidate, it’s hard for me to fathom how “we can’t back down in Iraq” is going to fly to a general audience.
If McCain does lose big (and obviously I can’t predict now the exact mixture of reasons for that), I can’t help wondering what lesson Republicans take from that. They’ve already created this bizarro read of 2006 (see my very first post), in which it had nothing to do with Iraq, but was instead a repudiation of…spending? (like I said, bizarro). I wonder if they’ll take 2008 to be a repudiation of illegal immigration?
Comment by Brad — 2/21/2008 @ 5:21 am
That data is really choppy. Three weeks ago, 40% wanted to stay in Iraq until the thing is done (although 54% still wanted troops home within a year).
I think that the issue is not so much the percentages, in any case, but the strength of feeling, which seems to have declined (based on exit polling of the most important issues to people that just cast their vote). I think that 2006 was more about Iraq than 2008 will be, because in 2006 the voters were, in part, rewarding the achitects of the whole thing with a big slap in the face.
Incidentally, did they really ask what voters “would like” the troops to be doing? Weird phrasing, if true.
Comment by Adam — 2/21/2008 @ 7:47 am
That’s not choppy at all. This particular poll (Rasmussen) has a range of 32-39%. That a Gallup poll or whatever has hit 40% isn’t all that surprising, or out of range.
If 40%ish is the peak, and the settling point is closer to 33%, that isn’t exactly a policy viewed very favorably, particularly in the case where McCain runs much stronger on it than your average Republican.
Comment by Brad — 2/21/2008 @ 8:36 am
It is that Rasmussen poll has the 40% from three weeks ago (31 January). I was talking about the Rasmussen data being choppy, which it is unless there’s a MoE of 5% or so, in which case why the hell is he talking about variations of 1% and 2%*? In fact, the MoE is 3%, so the data is choppy and, given that, why the hell is he talking about variations of 1% and 2%?
*He also does this in his presidential tracking poll, for some reason (although it presumably is OK when comparing month-to-month figures and he does regularly mention statistical error).
Comment by Adam — 2/21/2008 @ 9:56 am
It is not choppy. Generally speaking, support for staying in Iraq until the job is done averages around a third of the country. Support for withdrawing from Iraq within the year averages around 2/3s. These numbers vary from poll to poll and month to month, of course, but on the whole are decidedly UNchoppy and have been pretty damn consistent over the last four years.
Comment by Brad — 2/21/2008 @ 10:37 am
61% of Americans probably couldn’t find Iraq on a map. I’m just sayin’.
Comment by James — 2/21/2008 @ 10:52 am
It is choppy (by which I mean, ‘highly variable and apparently discontinuous’). At the level of precision you are picking (‘averages about a third’), sure, it’s not, but that’s the not the level that Rasmussen’s figures are at, not the MoE, nor his discussion, all of which are the subject of my comment.
Comment by Adam — 2/21/2008 @ 12:00 pm