The McCain Train
From Mark Ambinder, the best campaign trail blogger going right now.
John McCain could finish third; the latter would be a development worth noting in the coverage today…. in fact, it’s been noted and predicted so much, it’s almost expected that he’ll finish fifth…. McCain has no real organization here, and any and all support is entirely endogenous. McCain could be unbeatable — his three strongest states, organizationally, are New Hampshire and Michigan and South Carolina, and the Giuliani campaign does not want to run against him.
Now settling into New Hampshire, I’m getting increasingly confident in my last cattle call prediction that McCain takes it all. It would be a rather historic comeback if he did, because Republican voters shopped around, and shopped around, and shopped around some more. They did not decide to vote for McCain easily. But it looks to me like they’re increasingly coming home, and in a weird way, McCain has been in the center of almost a perfect storm of the expectations game, inter-party warfare, timing, and just plain dumb luck. If he gets third in Iowa, and wins New Hampshire and Michigan and South Carolina (now a distinct probability given the liklihood of a Romney and Thompson deflation)…who beats him again?
By the way, if anybody has seen Rudy Giuliani, please ask him to report to a white courtesy phone.
I have to admit, as pro-Ron Paul as I am, the prospect of a McCain-Obama general election warms my heart. A damn sight better than Clinton-Giuliani or Edwards-Romney.
Not sure how a McCain-Obama election would warm my heart. An election between an absolutist warhawk who would meanwhile continue Junior’s domestic policies at home vs. a man who seems of peace but I feel would invade Darfur or some other downtrodden land in a heartbeat to ‘help’, especially if the article he co-authored with Sam Brownback in 2005 is any evidence. Meanwhile expanding the welfare state further than even Junior’s wildest hopes. Both forms of statism in their own right
Hmmmmm, continued interventionism by both in some part of the world with expanding domestic policies furthering the decline of the dollar. Back to the stick in the eye or punch in the gut routine huh?
Comment by nighttrain — 1/3/2008 @ 4:56 pm
Let me rephrase then:
“I have to admit, as pro-Ron Paul as I am, the prospect of a McCain-Obama general election, relative to a Clinton-Giuliani or Edwards-Romney one, warms my heart.”
Comment by Brad — 1/3/2008 @ 5:08 pm
I appreciate the sentiment. Would a McCain Obama matchup be better? Well if neither one of them won, then yes, I could stomach watching it more than some of the other possible matchups as you mention. But I wouldn’t want either one of them running the country either.
Seriously we’re at the point now in this nation’s history where the question is will we be the leading world power for 10 more years? Or 20? Because 30 is right out.
Comment by nighttrain — 1/3/2008 @ 5:31 pm
I’d be just fine with a McCain-Obama general election. It would assure me of an honorable and formidable President; a man I could be proud to say held the office.
Comment by Rojas — 1/3/2008 @ 6:04 pm
Go go McCain (my prediction from the first cattle call and, I think, one other cattle call and, of course, my guy in this race).
Hardly anyone lost money betting against my favoured candidates in just about any election, however. I am the Bob Shrum of political support.
Comment by Adam — 1/3/2008 @ 6:42 pm
Yes. McCain’s campaign song really should be the Farm’s ‘Groovy Train.’
Get on, Get on, Get on, Get on McCain’s groovy train.
He’s so special.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_ws0FPoEKE
Comment by Leotie — 1/4/2008 @ 10:23 pm
If McCain gets the nomination, I will retain a modicum of respect for the Republican party. If either Huckabee or Giuliani gets it, I see myself voting for a democrat for the first time in my life. My nightmare at this stage is Huckabee vs Edwards; you might as well write off the economic future of the country if either wins.
I still have a suspicion that this election will be upended by a candidate from out of the blue. Something tells me that there’s spark out there which will ignite a third party bid.
Comment by Cameron — 1/4/2008 @ 11:30 pm
Yeah, stay in Iraq for 100 years.
Or better, eternity.
Comment by scineram — 1/6/2008 @ 10:46 am