TheCrossedPond CattleCall – Pre-Christmas
Now that we’ve made our endorsements (Republican, Democrat), I’m interested in hearing you guys (bloggers and readers) sound off on where you think the race is likely to go (not where you’d like it to go). So, predictions (you can view previous cattlecalls by searching for them).
I’ll post mine when I get back a bit later.
Both parties. How do you think things shake out?
Romney, Obama, Paul and Bloomberg in a four way race.
Comment by daveg — 12/20/2007 @ 4:06 pm
I still think Romney will snatch the Republican nomination.
Despite the issues over mormonism and his poor record (or rather, his flexible personal politics), make him the most attractive amongst the field (edging out Thompson, who I think will begin to make an impact now they have ramped up their campaign).
Huckabee will show well, then fade.
Obama for the Democrats, though its harder to call. Obama has a rare talent for alienating people.
Clinton has a lot of favors to call in and influence to wield though, and can never be counted out.
Edwards will trail a solid third and never really break past that.
Still a Democratic Presidency come the vote, unless they manage to shoot themselves in the foot.
Comment by Mark — 12/20/2007 @ 4:08 pm
Good call on Bloomberg.
He is a genuinely solid choice, crippled by being independent in a two party race.
Comment by Mark — 12/20/2007 @ 4:09 pm
Hmmm
1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee
4. Paul
5. Giuliani
The top three have changed since last time because I didn’t realise how much some influential members of the party hate Huckabee. I can still see McCain winning and there is some of the movement that I was looking for last time (although for a bunch of reasons) but I don’t think that it’s enough. Giuliani is in some trouble right now; I have Paul above him because I think that Paul will hang in wheras Giuliani will drop after February 5. Big variable here in general, of course, is February 5.
Comment by Adam — 12/20/2007 @ 4:12 pm
Oh, and Democrats, same as last time, for the same reasons:
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
Comment by Adam — 12/20/2007 @ 4:15 pm
Lastly, I don’t think that Bloomberg runs. Which he’s said he won’t, pretty much.
Comment by Adam — 12/20/2007 @ 4:16 pm
A very tough call. I am going to have to do some thinking before I post for a change.
Comment by James — 12/20/2007 @ 4:22 pm
The Democrats are easy.
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
The entire philosophical case for Clinton has collapsed. That she’s inevitable, the consolidation candidate, and that she’s best equipped to fight the GOP.
She has instead fallen precipitously (though not totally) in the polls, both nationally and in the early states, she’s proven divisive and petty, and her campaign machine has shown pretty clearly that it’s prone to cracking up in the face of even mild challenges. For her to snag the nomination now would require almost a perfect storm of Edwards and Obama canceling each other out.
Obama wins New Hampshire easy. Only question is if Edwards or Obama win Iowa, which is a three way tie for first at present. I’m suspecting Edwards takes Iowa. He’s already got as much support as anybody, plus the institutional advantage there, and finally he’s the second choice for a staggering 45% of likely caucus goers. Hillary drops first, and where her support goes is the question. I could go either way, but I suspect Edwards takes it. The question then is: who cares? Three days later it’s New Hampshire and Barack, the media story becomes Clinton’s shrill fall with Obama’s audacity of hope shining through, and Edwards just isn’t very competitive beyond that. Edwards drops out (late) and endorses Obama, Clinton hangs on and racks up delegates, but Obama just takes the high road straight to the nomination.
Comment by Brad — 12/20/2007 @ 4:38 pm
Much as I want Paul to win the Republican nomination outright, I think he would lose.
BUT, he will make a great showing, and there will be at least one “dirty trick” involved that will give him the moral authority to run as an independant.
Once that happens, Bloomberg will not be able to resist entering the race.
Comment by daveg — 12/20/2007 @ 5:00 pm
Republicans I can’t even really rank per se. I view it as the most wide-open race since the Dems in 92, and it’s all about comparing strategies and scenarios, with too many variables to be able to really predict with any accuracy.
That said, I’m thinking now that John McCain takes the nomination.
If I had to rank, I’d say:
1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
4. Giuliani/Paul
6. Thompson
Easy one first: Thompson doesn’t make it to Feb 5. Shit, he looks like he’s ready to concede already. If he doesn’t hit a Top 3 in Iowa, he’s out. If he doesn’t win or make a very strong second in South Carolina, he’s out. I view both of those as unlikely. Thompson’s nearly a non-factor at this point.
Paul, same as always. He’ll surprise here and there with some very notable Top Threes, maybe even win a few states (Alaska, Wyoming, possibly Nevada or Michigan), and constantly be the B-side story of the campaign season in the GOP all the way to the convention.
Giuliani, who I’ve picked as the likely nominee in every single cattle call, now faces much of the same problem as Clinton, and his national strategy, which looked pretty solid to me, now looks much less so when there are so many candidates who are not him liable to crowd him out of the early field entirely. Giuliani’s hope is that everybody wins one, and then he wins the rest, the first part of which is somewhat likely, but by the time it comes to Giuliani’s turn (Florida, then February 5), he won’t even be on the radar anymore. Primary voters are fickle creatures, given to waiting for a narrative and then throwing in with it, and I don’t know that there’s going to be a huge back-end contingent just waiting to vote for Rudy after a month of everybody else having a turn in the spotlight. He is completely lost in the dark in January, gets third in Florida, and collapses. Limps through February 5, doing respectably, but unless he absolutely dominates that one (in perception, not so much delegates), the campaign passes him by.
Now, the Iowa/Huckabee triangle.
I’ve written about it before, but in my view, the two biggest factors:
1. Huckabee is being puffed up so much, and with so many waiting in the wings to tear him apart, that unless he DOMINATES Iowa by 10 points or more, he loses the expectations battle. And that will be a fast, fast deflate, particularly if he DOESN’T win Iowa. My guess now is Romney takes Iowa, barely, but while it isn’t enough to boost Romney, it is enough to destroy Huckabee. He threatens in New Hampshire, but not after losing Iowa, and he’ll pick up support on the back end, but unless voters throw him on their shoulders and carry him to the nomination, he’s going to get ripped to shreds, fast. He peaked about two weeks too early. He will still have a lot of support that will cling to him fervently, but mainstream Republican voters will get the message very early that he’s not their savior, and they look elsewhere. Still becomes the VP nominee if the nominee is ANYBODY but Romney.
2. Romney, however, is helped by Huckabee, but still hurt by the fact that he’s not competitive OUTSIDE the early states. The story coming out of Iowa isn’t going to be Romney’s amazing finish (for which he spent 2 years and 30 million dollars to eek out a 3 point victory over a dark horse nobody), but Huckabee’s amazing collapse. In New Hampshire, he loses, at which point again the story focuses elsewhere, and Huckabee’s still going to be around through Feb 5th to split the socon vote.
So, that leaves McCain.
McCain takes a surprise third in Iowa, and then wins New Hampshire decisively (latest Rasmussen shows he’s statistically tied there now, and any undeclareds that vote in the GOP race are almost certainly going to break McCain over Romney by 5 to 1). He threatens now in virtually every single early state to follow (Michigan, South Carolina, Florida, etc). We’ve been assuming that a chaotic early start helps Giuliani. Now I think it helps McCain.
Being a frontrunner never suited him. Any win he gets is going to by definition surpass expectations (I was one thinking he should have dropped out in July). He’s stable, he’s a stalwart, he’s old guard, he can keep the conservative coalition together (grousing about immigration and campaign finance aside), he’s electable, he’s been thoroughly vetted (by the GOP mostly)…he’s John Kerry but better.
Romney and Huckabee are going to dogfight all the way to February 5, and voters are going to very quickly sniff the desperation in Romney and the weakness in Huckabee, forget all about Rudy, and they’re going to go looking, and there’ll be McCain. Couple that with a few early wins in New Hampshire and Michigan and a strong second or first in South Carolina and Florida, and he becomes the mainstream candidate of choice for your average late-breaking Republican voter. Both Huckabee and Romney make it past February 5th, but Huckabee drops out first to stick it to Romney (and secure his own future VP slot), and we know he’ll endorse McCain. That’ll be the last piece of the puzzle, as evangelicals and socons get the all-clear. Romney can’t pivot fast enough to challenge McCain that late, can’t make the uniter/electable argument after his claw-fest with Huckabee and against loved-by-independents/press/Democrats McCain, and goes down with his fists clenched screaming “NOOOOOO!!!!” to the heavens. Rudy, for his part, will try in late January to mount a campaign, but ultimately his “tough on the War on Terror” schtick won’t fly against McCain, and he’ll have to concede after the 5th, at which point he’ll endorse McCain. The race in January is a cluster fuck, but by the end delegate count won’t even be close. McCain becomes the voice of Republicanism that anybody can feel good about getting behind, and he does just that, in which he provides a noble campaign that everybody respects but which convinces mostly no one not already divided on party lines.
We inaugurate our first black President in January 2009.
Comment by Brad — 12/20/2007 @ 5:04 pm
Ok, here goes. First the Democrats, which I don’t see as being as easy as Brad let’s on:
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards
It is going to be tight, down, and dirty between Clinton and Obama, with the dirt being flung primarily from the Clinton camp; it’s how they operate. As distasteful as I find Hillary to be, the Clintons have an enormous amount of political mojo. No “Oprah effect” is going to overcome the cunning political machine that the Clintons have constructed over years of incumbent power. At the end of the day, regardless of the opining of pundits on how weary we Americans are of negative campaigning, one need only turn on the reality show laced primetime lineups to see what both Hollywood and the Clintons know well: it works. Obama will stick to the high road as he pretty much has and it will be to his credit. But regardless of good intentions, if you bring a knife to a gunfight, you are going to leave in a body bag. Nope, barring some serious revelation that torpedoes Clinton, she is going to call in all her markers, and Bill’s, to claw her way to the nomination. If I am right, then it will spell big problems for the Democratic Party in trying to wrest the presidency from Republican control. I suspect that this very reality is the source of some consternation within Democratic circles. Nevertheless, one must never be fooled that Hillary is doing this for the Party, she is not. Being ‘secretly’ free of such an obligation, the Clinton Party will pull out all the stops to secure her nomination. After that is when the wheels of the bus will start to really wobble.
The Republicans:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Paul
I think Huckabee peaked too early and has one too many nativity scenes made from skeletons in his closet. While Romney still has that scarlet M painted on him, he will ultimately prove to be the least scary of the two warriors of god that the righteous must choose to lead them through the great tribulation. It will be close, but Huckabee’s cell phone is going to be low on god bars when he needs them most. McCain will make gains going forward if this story doesn’t turn into an anti-aircraft gun. However, and rather sadly so, he has very little political mojo and must rely on being the principled, thoughtful, and honorable man that he is, which basically means he hasn’t got a chance in hell of getting nominated. Obviously, Ron Paul suffers from the same affliction as McCain and can only be deemed as unworthy to hold the highest office in the land. I mean we have low standards to maintain, right?
If I am right about all this, then the general election is going to look like a scene from Alien vs Predator.
Comment by James — 12/20/2007 @ 5:36 pm
Attacking just in its own right isn’t enough. You have to attack well, and in such a way as to bring down your opponent or lift you.
If Hillary’s campaign has shown us anything this last month, it’s that she’s not particularly good at the attacking. If anything, they’ve driven up her negatives and made her opponents look better, which is the opposite of how that would work. What negative attacks of hers do you see sticking?
Comment by Brad — 12/20/2007 @ 5:56 pm
There isn’t much chance for a candidate to come out of left field and steal the thunder in the democratic race. It’s going to come down to Clinton and Obama and it’s going to be dirty and nasty. I see Obama pulling in a few early states, but then fading. Clinton is going to power through. She could tank here soon in which case Obama has it wrapped up, but I think she’s got a truly powerful machine underneath her which is still fiercely loyal.
The republican side is far more uncertain in my eyes. I still put some money on McCain surprising a few people. He’s got a cleanness and dignity the Romney and Giuliani could only dream about. If Huck fails to perform early, he’s dead. I think Giuliani will continue to falter as he becomes more (or less) than America’s Mayor in the heat of the campaign.
Romney is a bit of a wildcard. He could rally the party to take the primary, but I see the steam leaving his sails rather.
Paul suprises a few people and wins a few states outright, but fails to lock the nomination. He gets maybe 15% of the primary votes nationwide. He turns around and runs as an independent (not libertarian).
McCain clinches the GOP nomination and Clinton pulls the democratic. Paul is in the race as an independent.
Bloomberg fails to take off and drops out soon after he enters.
And then out of left field another person (as of yet unknown) enters the presidential race as an independent. I see a four way race between the dems, republicans, Paul and Mr X.
Nobody gets a majority in the electoral college.
Let the fun begin.
Comment by Cameron — 12/20/2007 @ 6:47 pm
I don’t know yet. She is just getting warmed up, Brad. Trust me, I HOPE you are right, but I fear you may be wrong. Alas, it is a win/win as far as I am concerned. Hillary cannot win the general election and I have to have a Democrat for a president, I can live with Obama.
Comment by James — 12/20/2007 @ 6:51 pm
Dem:
Obama Never runs away with it, but early state showing cements him among the undecides and those concerned about his electability
Clinton Runs strong throught he whole race, but ultimately falls short
Edwards Drops in early-mid Febuary
Rep:
Huckabee
Giuliani
McCain
Romney (Will drop in Mid Feb, with four state strategy a failure and unable to break out in the early Feb big races)
Paul (Will not drop, but will still finish with less deligates than Romney)
Thompson (Will drop in early Feb)
Comment by Jack — 12/20/2007 @ 7:34 pm
Interesting how you placed, Giuliani, Jack. I was honestly confounded trying to decide how he would place. You could very well have called this better than me.
Comment by James — 12/20/2007 @ 9:49 pm
I think there are about 6 other gueses in this cattle call that could also turn out to be prescient. My Huckabee prediction is not as comfortable in my mind as last time, but I’m staying with it. Where is Rojas’ prediction? Looking to see if you stays with his Huck prediction from, what was it, 1994?
Comment by Jack — 12/21/2007 @ 12:26 am
I just don’t know anymore. Honest to God, I have no freaking idea.
I’ll take a stab that amounts mostly to defaulting to my original scenario in the hope that it will prove prescient.
DEMOCRATS:
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Kucinich
4. Edwards
I think Obama wins Iowa. Maybe he even goes on to win NH. It doesn’t matter.
The meme I hear, again and again, from the women who make up the sizable majority of the Dem primary electorate, is “I’m voting for Hillary because she’s a woman.”
Well, okay, dumbshits, I believe you. You’ll nominate her, over a candidate superior in every imaginable respect. And good luck with that.
Obama gets wiped out on February 5–and at this point he doesn’t even ASK for the VP nomination, he’s so pissed off. Hillary, as she would have done anyway, gives it to Wesley Clark, and campaigns in the general election with every bit of the skill and subtlety she’s brought to the primaries. Not having a friendly electorate, she loses.
REPUBLICANS
1. Huckabee
2. McCain
3. Giuliani
4. Paul
5. MitRom
Yes, Huckabee peaked too early–that was the fly in the ointment of my Most Great And Perfect Plan. And yet–he peaked a bit too soon for MitRom to fully exploit it.
Let me explain.
MitRom and the entire corporate conservative establishment have emptied both barrells at Huckabee at this point. I fully agree with Brad that the Iowa caucuses would go to Romney if they were held today.
The problem is that the showdown happened too early FOR ROMNEY. Huckabee is still standing; the two of them are at parity in the polls. And Huckabee remains what he was, is, and ever shall be: a vastly superior politician when compared to Mitt Romney.
Moreover, the Christian Right has now heard everything Romney has to offer them on his LDS membership. And they don’t appear, judging by the polls, to be buying it. In fact, it looks to me like the entire ChristCon electorate has gone rogue at this point, and that poking them with a stick in order to herd them back into line is only going to enrage them further.
Huckabee wins Iowa by a margin exceeding that set by the new post-Romney-rally expectations.
McCain puts the axe to Romney’s candidacy in New Hampshire, because he, too, is a superior candidate to Mitt Romney.
Huck ends Thompson in SC with a thumping win. Bob Jones is rapturtous for all the wrong reasons. On 2/5, Giuliani’s anemic default-choice candidacy is euthanized (the only thing in this whole race I’m sure of).
Paul hangs in, does his thing, irritates a lot of his followers by not spending their contributions very freely or wisely, and never cracks twelve percent. He runs in the general election as an independent and pulls in a solid fifteen percent, virtually monopolizing the anti-war and small-government constituencies.
McCain simply doesn’t have the traction, electorally, to overcome Huckabee. He becomes the ABH candidate, but nobody’s excited enough about him to overcome the ChristCon jihad.
Huckabee’s superior political skill alone accounts for the Huckabee/Owens victory over Clinton/Clark. He rules until the year 2016, at which point Barack Obama takes over with far too large a national debt for the job to be at all worthwhile.
Comment by Rojas — 12/21/2007 @ 12:28 am
I have a feeling that we haven’t even seen the next president yet. I get this feeling that the public is ready to dump both the major parties and rally around somebody. I don’t think it’s Paul or Blomberg at this point, but I sense a dissatisfaction with the current crop of choices which lends itself towards a third or no party general election summer spoiler. It will depend of course on who is nominated by the two parties.
Particularly on the Republican side of the spectrum, I sense that a Mr. X is lurking on the shadowy sidelines.
Comment by Cameron — 12/21/2007 @ 1:46 am
Damn, I better start raising some money. This could be my big chance.
Comment by James — 12/21/2007 @ 2:25 pm