The Crossed Pond

So Robertson says it’s Giuliani. And Weyrich and Bob Jones insist upon Romney. And Brownback wants McCain. And Gary Bauer is leaning Thompson-ish. And nobody knows where the hell James Dobson’s at, save that he doesn’t want Thompson.

A superficial analysis would suggest that the ChristCons have fragmented like an ice cube struck with a sledgehammer. But there’s an even more important dynamic at play beneath the surface that could change the face of the Republican Party.

The unspoken assumption about the Christian Right, since its emergence under Reagan, has been that its leaders can deliver their voters. The ChristCons have served a function within the Republican Party similar to that which labor unions used to serve for the Democrats.

And now, suddenly, it appears that the Christian Conservatives may be losing sway for very much the same reason the labor unions did–because the leaders no longer speak for their followers. The fourway split mentioned above is only the tip of the iceberg. Most notable of all is the fact that pretty much everytime you actually ask them, the voters in question opt for Huckabee. And that scares hell out of the leadership, as the Washington Post article referenced above notes:

During a meeting of religious conservatives last month, some group leaders moved to support Mr. Huckabee, leading to a “panic” among such high-profile organizations as Mr. Dobson’s Focus on the Family and Mr. Perkins’ Family Research Council, Dr. Brinson said.

“The fear was that conservatives would rally behind Huckabee and that the Dobson and Perkins organizations would become irrelevant,” he said.

There exists a strong possibility–in my opinion, a likelihood–that the Republican nominee is going to achieve critical mass in the primaries with the support of NO major leader on the Christian right. He’ll have gone around the leadership and taken his case straight to the people.

A lot of otherwise smart people on the right are missing the boat on this. Take Rich Lowry today, quoting a “top social conservative”:

On the impact of the Robertson endorsement on the race: “What it does for Rudy is it says, ‘It’s OK to vote for Rudy.’ I think there will be more of that, pre-nomination and post-nomination.” On conservative evangelical voters and Giuliani: “If Rudy is the nominee, they’re going to vote for him—period.”

PERIOD. If one of my self-appointed leaders said something like that about me, I’d be damned tempted to do the opposite just to spite them. But the unspoken assumption of this guy is that the ChristCons are sheep who will do what they’re told. I think he’s underestimating his people. I think his assumption may be about to be proven wrong in a big way.

And that’s a bad thing from the perspective of the Christian right as a bloc, but a good thing from the perspective of America’s welfare. It suggests that the farcical notion that there is only one politically legitimate expression of Christian principles is falling by the wayside. It also suggests that perhaps the most politcially active and strident group of voters is demonstrating increased independence of mind and critical thought. Good for them.