You heard it here first
A while back, I speculated about whom might be hit by a Colbert candidacy in South Carolina (my guess: Ron Paul).
Via Andrew Sullivan, I see that Josh Green has crunched some numbers. On page 2, he says:
put Ron Paul in a separate category of “protest candidate,” but he should be sweating, too. Paul’s supporters are among the most passionate and committed this cycle. But their profile is similar to that of the voters Colbert might attract. (“Pot smokers,” a Republican consultant called them.) Anonymous presidential advisor: “If Colbert wants to do it he’s got to convert every young, semi-liberal Ron Paul supporter to the Colbert cause. If a young white male is going to vote, watches Comedy Central, and is internet savvy, chances are he’s a Ron Paul supporter.”
As I said it the day before Green did (and if Colbert has taught us anything, it’s that we don’t need any fancy ‘numbers’, so Green was just wasting time with his calculator when he should have been listening to his gut) and it is now confirmed in his post on a blog hosted by a major publication, I declare myself the winner of this week’s internet. There are no appeals.
Having won the internet, you may now use it to fix those two spectacularly broken links.
Comment by Rojas — 10/22/2007 @ 8:41 pm
Your internet is clearly broken, loser.
Comment by Adam — 10/22/2007 @ 8:50 pm
I suppose I buy that if Colbert takes away from anyone, it would be Ron Paul. Again, it’s the funhog vote.
However, I’d be skeptical how much of an impact Colbert will actually have (most likely he’ll have to be a write in candidate), how much of that effect will be in the Republican primary, and how well Paul is going to do in South Carolina anyway.
Comment by Brad — 10/22/2007 @ 8:54 pm
And by the way, the best post breaking the Colbert thing down is from The Right’s Field. Somebody actually crunched the numbers based on Colbert’s audience demographic. Also, crazily, they polled him. He polls less than 1% among Republicans in South Carolina, and, amazingly, 2.7% among Democrats, beating Richardson and Kucinich and Gravel.
Comment by Brad — 10/22/2007 @ 8:59 pm
I think that you mean “the best post after Adam’s”. I note that the Right’s Field post leans on the Joshua Green post I linked which, as we have already seen, proved that I win the internet this week.
Comment by Adam — 10/22/2007 @ 9:05 pm