The Tory Hand
It turns out that Brown may have had good reason for nixing the idea of a fall election. Cameron played it like a round of poker. His hand wasn’t great, certainly not the nuts, but he suspected that Brown’s hand, though a favorite, could lose in a race, and that Brown may not have had the nerve to risk it. Being short stack, Cameron liked his odds. So, Cameron went all in after the flop, and Brown folded. Brown had the better hand—top pair, say—but Cameron had a flush draw.
Still with me?
The Observer can reveal that [Brown] decided to act after Labour’s private polls showed a severe drop in the party’s support in key marginal constituencies after the Tories pledged to exempt properties worth less than £1m from inheritance tax. The findings are confirmed in a News of the World opinion poll today, which found that the pledge by the shadow Chancellor, George Osborne, is so popular that Labour was on course to lose its parliamentary majority. The ICM poll of 83 key marginal seats found the Tories leading Labour by 44 per cent to 38 per cent. This would have led to the loss of 49 seats, including Redditch, which is held by the Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith, creating a hung Parliament.
The problem Brown now faces is the egg on his face by looking like he’s backed off a reasonable challenge, which is surely going to reduce his effectiveness. The Tories played this well. The bad thing about being bullied off the best hand is now the other players can smell your weakness. My guess is Brown’s going to find himself facing a lot more push bets in the future.