The Crossed Pond

I’ve been meaning to post some Senate stuff, so instead of doing a bunch of posts of my own, I’ll just do a roundup of Kos coverage. Kos himself, for my money, is a heckuva Congressional handicapper, and has proven pretty good at identifying early which people and seats not yet on the radar might pop up very soon. This is his stuff just over the last four days.

–Former Senator Bob Kerrey, convinced that Chuck Hagel is going to step down soon, is throwing his hat into the ring for Chuck’s Nebraska Senate seat. Kerrey says he’s going to make a final decision in a couple of weeks (Hagel is expected to announce whether he’ll seek a third term in a month or so). Kerry, in an open race, would probably be the favorite, and it would certainly be bizarre to see Nebraska with two Democratic Senators. Kos breaks down how red-state Kerrey would be if he got back in the Senate, representing Nebraska. I expect Hagel to say, actually.

–The liberal netroots line up behind Al Franken. Thank you, says Al Franken. He’s going to be probably the best backed Senate candidate this cycle.

–Susan Collins (R-ME), who is going to face a strong challenge this year in Tom Allen, has been getting some bad press lately in my former state. Turns out the executive editor of Bangor Daily News has a wife on Collin’s payroll. Also, she’s in something of a spat with Vote Vets and other anti-war groups, who have started already running ads against her, geared at her pro-war support (the RNC has already started running ads saying “Susan Collins has been a strong defender of the War in Iraq” to which her opponents have been saying “Yes. Yes she has.”). She also lost her temper when she was being followed around on the campaign trail by a Tom Allen staffer with a video camera, a dust up which has caused general bemusement across the state.

–Oregon might be in play.

–For that matter, so might Texas, as the Democrats have a pretty good, Latin-fueled candidate (with the unfortunate name of Noriega) running against a lukewarmly popular John Cornyn, and hoping to ride the anti-Republican coattails that Coryn and the GOP’s anti-immigration has stirred up among a good third of Texas’ population. Take the chances of this race actually being close with a grain of salt, but Noriega isn’t just a cardboard cutout of a challenger, and in a certain kind of year, could be a dark horse. In any case, win or lose, it’ll be interesting to see by how much the Texas GOP has not only lost the Latin vote, but coalesced it around their opponents, given all the GOP immigration stuff in the last two years.

–Hell, even Kentucky might be in play. It’ll be in play enough to keep Mitch McConnell sweating, in any case.

–Most interestingly, Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, after his quickly aborted Presidential run, is now turning his eyes to the potentially opening Senate seat in his state. It’s getting to be widely expected that John Warner retires soon, and if he does, both Mark Warner (wildly popular former governor) and now Jon Gilmore (moderately unpopular former governor) have said they’d likely run. Gilmore v Warner would be a marquee race, that’s for sure. But the advantage would almost certainly belong to Warner. However, Warner, who can basically pick his next office, might want to go back to the governor’s mansion, or the Vice Presidency, in which case Gilmore would be a good stand-in for incumbent should Warner step down. Though the way the Virginia Democratic Party has been operating in the last few years, I wouldn’t put money on this seat staying red.

–Republicans in Colorado, like Republicans in Louisiana, are still having a difficult time locking in somebody to challenge for the seat, widely expected to go blue.

–The Republicans still suck at raising money for their Senate races this year. Also, at recruiting.

–And finally, as good as 2008 looks for the Dems, Kos thinks 2010 looks even better.