How does it play?
I mentioned before that I don’t buy the idea that the President’s performance should be judged based on whether another terrorist attack happens — using statistically rare events for that purpose defies logic — but I don’t think there’s any doubt that such rare events do affect the opinions of a lot of people, leading them to emotional judgements on Foreign Policy, an almost hysterical willingness to surrender civil liberties in return for at least the appearance of safety, or ill-advised decisions to post pictures of a bald eagle shedding a tear against a Stars and Stripes backdrop on internet fora.
There was considerable scepticism from opponents of the administration, back in the day, when Tom Ridge would appear with a new terror threat warning through the election season of 2004. To some, it looked as if the administration was seeking to farm public emotions, specifically fear, to political ends. It wasn’t even clear what effect a terrorist attack would have had on the President; would it appear as the inverse of the “Bush is a good President because there have been no more terrorist attacks” line or would it reaffirm the “Commander in Chief in Time of War’ glow with a timely reminder that there are Bad People out there who really don’t like America.
So, anyhow, following Chertoff’s gut acting as a Federal version of Miss Cleo, there are more warnings of terrorist threats afoot, arising from the as-yet-unreleased most recent National Intelligence Estimate. I wonder if, though, this time around such concerns are going to hurt the President, who is now almost totally defined by the situation in Iraq, support of which the administration often attempts to rally with claims that if not fought in Iraq, Al Quaida types will be after America at home. If they’re after America at home anyhow, and the threat is considerable, what of the view of Iraq as a worthwhile, albeit enormously expensive by just about any sane metric, terrorist flypaper? It will start to look to even more people, including what remains of the Bush base, like a dangerous distraction — nobody supported invading Iraq for it to be an ill-considered sideshow.