The Crossed Pond

Via Craig Crawford at CQ politics (whose blog, incidentally, is on our blogroll now; give it a visit) points out that should Bloomberg enter the race come general election time, even very very early indicators point to a net benefit for the Democratic candidate. In 10 out of 15 battleground states Survey USA polled with an “all New York” matchup (Giuliani, Clinton, Bloomberg), Bloomberg’s entry provides an immediate draw from Rudy. In most cases, he flips Iowa, Ohio, Missouri, and New Mexico to the Democrats (in the case of Hillary, even making Kentucky, a state she may well contest, into a dead heat). With Romney on the ticket for Republicans, Bloomberg could help Democrats pick up Alabama, Texas, and Virginia.

I think it’s a pretty safe assumption that Bloomberg is much more likely to draw from the GOP nominee, although, depending on the dynamics of the race, he could maybe split the anti-war vote if he and, say, Chuck Hagel manage to eek out a middle ground somewhere between “run and hide” and “onward Christian soldiers!” But his base appeal is, by and large, traditionally Republican. He’s the CEO candidate that Romney has tried to be, and there are going to be a lot of disaffected conservatives who don’t want to vote for Rudy but wouldn’t vote for Hillary Clinton under any circumstances. In a two-way race, Rudy might net them. With Bloomberg in the mix, they have an easy out. And, the polling effect SurveyUSA is noting this far out is peanuts compared to what it’ll be this time next year, when Clinton and Giuliani are sweating bullets under the spotlight and Bloomberg is pumping in Ross Perot money. Though the smart money by far is on a Democrat winning the presidency this year, it could be a dead heat depending on whose running and how they’ve staked the ideological battleground. With Bloomberg in the mix, however, it starts looking like a sure thing.